The Coaching Carousel---Which Former Head Coach Will Win This Time?

With the bowl season coming to an end, the coaching carousel in college football seems to be slowing down after moving at a break neck speed in December. Currently in the FBS (formerly Division 1A) there has been 26 head coaching changes out of the 120 programs or 22% of all programs will have new leadership in 2012. What is really interesting is that six of these new coaches are coaches who were recently fired from high profile programs. The question becomes, If they were unsuccessful in their previous opportunity with significant resources, why would they be successful with less resources?

I have been trying to think of some hugely successful coaches who have achieved that success after being let go from another position. In some situations the fit is just not right. Steve Spurrier was certainly a bust with the Washington Redskins but resurrected the program at the University of South Carolina following Lou Holtz (Holtz had 33-37 record in 6 years). Frank Solich has had a nice run at Ohio University after being let go at Nebraska. However it appears that most of the second chance guys have not had any major success. Ron Zook at Illinois, Houston Nutt at Ole Miss, Butch Davis at UNC and Rick Nueheisel at UCLA, all flunked again.

Of the six high profile coaches who are getting a second chance, which have the best chance to be successful. Based on some leadership principles, here is my guess as to how each will do:

1. Mike Leach----Leach will have success at Washington State when comparing W and L’s to his predecessors. Leach’s offensive system loaded with California Juco’s will make an impact in the Pac 12. His eccentricities will play well in the Great Northwest (at least for a short time). Throwing conventional wisdom out the window and embellishing change are two leadership strategies that will be part of Leach’s program.
2. Rich Rodriguez----Coach Rod will get things going in Tucson. His tenure at Michigan fraught with NCAA issues will not be a factor at U of A. The ghost of Bo Schembechler will not always be on his shoulder for the Wildcats and his success will parallel his tenure at West Virginia. At Tucson, he will implement his program rather than be concerned about how to do things the Michigan way. Greg Byrne, the Arizona Athletic Director, will assure NCAA compliance.
3. Jim L. Mora (formerly Jim Mora Jr.)---Mora who was terminated after one year with the Seahawks with four years remaining at $4 million a year, has earned the reputation of a player’s coach who is a great motivator. While his coaching acumen and experience as a head coach was questioned, he should be able to recruit the talent rich Southern California landscape and get his guys to perform to their talent level. Competing with USC’s Lane Kiffin will pose an interesting challenge for the two-time NFL head man.
4. Charlie Weis---Weis’ main claim to fame was offensive coordinator of the Patriots. Unfortunately Weis and the Kansas Jayhawks need a Tom Brady clone to be successful. If you can’t get it done at tradition rich Notre Dame and not be able to build an offense at Florida, I question if Weis can make Jayhawk football more than something to do until Bill Self rolls out the roundballs.
5. Bob Davie---The Lobos have struggled in football and have invested a ton of resources and still have not been able to compete at a level that is commensurate with their other programs. Davie had Notre Dame’s power and the benefit of being a “hot property” when he took over the reigns of the Fighting Irish. He will have to re-invent himself and figure out a way to build a program from the ground up. Over the years the Lobo faithful has not had much patience. Davie will have to show improvement pretty quickly.
6. Terry Bowden---The difference between the Akron program and the Clemson program is light years from each other. Will the limited resources of a Mid-American program be a problem or will being away from the limelight allow Bowden to coach with no pressure. The Bowden family has had plenty of success and knows how to win in the right situation, the question, is this the right situation?

I think if you are engaging someone to lead any of your initiatives make sure you understand why they were successful or why they were not successful in their previous efforts. Then make sure those traits fit well into your situation.